Cables at the bottom of the Pacific Ocean connect markets and data centers on both sides of the ocean. Analysts at the China Strategic Risks Institute compiled an index of the vulnerability of such lines for the US commission advising Congress. The calculation included installation depth, vessel traffic, cable ownership and proximity to disputed areas. On the map, the most vulnerable areas are concentrated around Taiwan, Japan and the Philippines, where routes pass through shallow waters and busy shipping areas. Projects with high scores include Google's TPU, Meta's ORCA, and Verizon's E2A; Some of these lines are still under construction.
The index is useful to telecom operators and states as a way to select surveillance sites and backup routes. At the same time, it cannot be read as a forecast of a specific attack. Ars Technica emphasizes that most damage to submarine cables occurs due to fishing nets, anchors and natural phenomena. Researchers have also studied the movements of scientific vessels near infrastructure, but the proximity of a vessel does not in itself prove an intention to disable a cable. The consequences of a major outage depend on how many lines are damaged, how much free capacity is available on adjacent routes, and how quickly traffic rerouting takes place. The main value of the work is not in the alarming headline, but in the specific map: it helps discuss protection and bandwidth reserves where failure can really become expensive.